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Published:
May 4, 2008
Scientist
issues fresh warning on threat of rising sea levels
Large
areas of the West Country's coastline - including Stert Island
and low-lying land around Burnham - could disappear into the sea
within 50 years, a leading scientist has warned this week.
Homes,
farmland, harbours and railways could be lost as sea levels rise
by 60cm and temperatures increase by half a degree Celsius within
two generations, claimed Chris Turney, a geologist, archaeologist
and climatologist at the University of Exeter.
 Prof
Turney estimates the rise in sea levels could lead to a dramatic
change in weather patterns, causing frequent fierce storms that
will, in turn, speed up coastal erosion.
"Everyone
living on the coast is vulnerable. The problem is that people
are sleep-walking into this disaster," he said.
His
predicted rise in sea levels is three times higher than the most
conservative estimates from the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate
Change, the leading body of scientists advising governments on
climate change.
Prof
Turney told the Western Morning News newspaper: "Future
predictions are actually more alarmist than previously thought
by the IPCC. Its estimates of a 20cm rise in sea levels by the
end of the century have been shown to be unrealistic. It could
be as high as a metre-and-a-half rise."
"My
predictions of half-a-metre rise in sea levels over the next 50
years may not sound a lot but it's not just the sea levels which
will rise. The wind patterns and sea currents will change. Coastal
erosion will get worse."
Prof
Turney came to his conclusions while researching his latest book
Ice, Mud and Blood: Lessons from Climates Past.
 Mike
Dunning, a South West spokesman for the Environment Agency, said
a contingency plan had been put in place to deal with rising sea
levels. He added: "Our plan allows for a 5mm rise in sea
levels a year."
"Some
areas will be abandoned to the sea like the Steart Peninsula near
Bridgwater. Others, especially along the rivers Exe and Teign,
could be at greater risk of flooding so we'll be looking at all
options."
Fellow
Westcountry climate change expert Roland Gehrels, from the University
of Plymouth's Physical Geography department, agreed with Prof
Turney that the IPCC's estimates are unrealistic.
But
he said his colleague's predictions were too catastrophic. "The
Westcountry can sustain a one-metre rise in sea levels. But it's
the impact big storms will have which is worrying. That would
get much worse."
Prof
Gehrels said the Somerset Levels would be most at risk of a rise
in sea levels.
Our
photos show storm waves hitting Burnham in March this year
RELATED
LINKS:
Huge buoy washed up
on Burnham beach as storms hit
Flood
advice pages for Burnham
1981
storm remembered
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